4 major hurricanes are predicted as part of an above-normal 2020 Atlantic hurricane season
(CNN)-Sixteen named storms, including eight hurricanes, are forecast for the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season, according to early predictions released Thursday by experts at Colorado State University.
Four of the hurricanes will become major storms of Category 3 to 5, with sustained winds of at least 111 mph, the projections indicate for the season that runs from June 1 to November 30.
2020 Atlantic hurricane season names
These are the names of tropical storms or hurricanes that may form in the Atlantic Ocean in 2020. Names are alphabetical, and alternate between male and female. Needing the entire list in a season is rare.
Arthur
Bertha
Cristobal
Dolly
Edouard
Fay
Gonzalo
Hanna
Isaias
Josephine
Kyle
Laura
Marco
Nana
Omar
Paulette
Rene
Sally
Teddy
Vicky
Wilfred
The chance that at least one major hurricane will make landfall in 2020 along the US coastline is 69%, compared with an average over the last century of 52%, researchers said. There is a 95% chance — the average is 84% — that at least one hurricane this year will make landfall in the US.
“The last season with four or more major hurricanes was the record damage-causing year of 2017 that saw Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria,” CNN meteorologist Brandon Miller said. “All caused significant damage in the US and Caribbean.”
Six major hurricanes formed that year in the Atlantic basin. The seasonal average is 12 named storms, including six hurricanes.
The forecasts do not precisely predict where the storms might strike, and the probability of landfall for any single location is low.
“Coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them,” researchers Philip Klotzbach, Michael M. Bell and Jhordanne Jones wrote in the report.
Confident in their forecast
The above-normal activity was predicted consistently across types of forecasts, Klotzbach said.
“This year, we used four different techniques to develop our forecast,” he told CNN Weather. “And they all point towards an active season.”
Colorado State in its April predictions hasn’t forecast four major hurricanes for a season since 2013 — a year that didn’t quite perform as the early forecast expected.
“I’d say that this year, we’re pretty confident,” Klotzbach said, citing a lack of El Niño conditions that can mess with expectations.
When El Niño is present, it reduces Atlantic hurricane activity due to increased vertical wind shear — changes in wind speed and direction with height that prevent hurricanes from building.
Average conditions create a more favorable environment for tropical storm development.
“Also, the tropical Atlantic is quite a bit warmer than it has been the past few years at this time,” Klotzbach said.
Sea surface temperatures are one of the ingredients needed to fuel hurricanes. The warmer the ocean, the more fuel available for the storms to tap into.
Although four major hurricanes are forecast this season, that doesn’t mean any necessarily will hit the US coast.
“Two of the last three years have had major hurricane landfalls in the US (2017 and 2018),” Miller said. “Before that, there was a 12-year drought without a single major hurricane landfall anywhere in the country (from Hurricane Wilma in 2005 to Hurricane Harvey in 2017).”
“The last major hurricane to strike the US was Hurricane Michael in 2018,” he said.
Forecasting this far in advance can be accurate
The models are based on 40 years of data and conditions, including sea surface temperatures, sea level pressures, vertical wind shear levels and El Niño.
April is about the earliest experts can get a good indication of what conditions will be like during the hurricane season.
“We find that there is just too much uncertainty with the future state of both (El Niño) and the Atlantic prior to that time,” Klotzbach says.
Still, these statistical and dynamical models fail in some years, the researchers made clear.
“Last year, we forecast a near-average hurricane season and ended up a bit more active than we thought,” Klotzbach said.
Their April 2019 forecast predicted five hurricanes for that year; six were observed. They forecast two of those to be major hurricanes; three were observed.
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Their April forecast did vary significantly from the total number of named storms in 2019: 13 were predicted, while 18 formed, though many were short-lived and weak.
This marks the 37th year that the university’s team has issued an Atlantic seasonal hurricane forecast. The official forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration will release in May.
The hurricane research team from Colorado State will also release updated forecasts on June 4, July 7 and August 6.
Training Session with Home Depot and Corbin Electrical Services Sales Team.
Training Session with Home Depot and Corbin Electrical Services Sales Team.
The 2019 hurricane season forecast just got worse: More intense storms are predicted
The Atlantic hurricane season, which has just entered its peak period, could be worse than predicted: There is a 45 percent chance of above-normal activity, up from the 30 percent outlook issued in May, federal forecasters said Thursday.
The number of predicted named storms also increased: Expect 10 to 17 tropical storms, up from the nine to 15 predicted in May.
Five to nine of those named storms could become hurricanes, up from the four to eight forecast in May.
Two to four major hurricanes are likely, a prediction unchanged in the new outlook. Major hurricanes represent Categories 3, 4 and 5 and have wind speeds of 111 mph or greater.
An average season has 12 named storms, with six hurricanes and three major hurricanes, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
The updated outlook “is a reminder to be prepared,” said Pete Gaynor, the acting administrator of the Federal Emergency Management Agency. “We urge everyone to learn more about hurricane hazards and prepare now, ahead of time.”
Corbin Electrical Services, Inc. will have a booth at Middlesex County Fair 81st Annual Fair
Please join us this week August 5th through August 11th at the 2019 Middlesex County Fair.
HOURS
Mon: 5:00PM-11:00PM
Tue: 5:00PM-11:00PM
Wed: 5:00PM-11:00PM
Thu: 5:00PM-11:00PM
Sat: 11:00AM-11:00PM
Sun: 11:00AM-10:00PM
Located – 655 Cranbury Rd, East Brunswick, NJ 08816
Admission Prices:
Admission: Adults $7.00
Senior Citizens 65 & over $4.00
Children 3-12 $1.00
Children 2 and under – Free
Free Parking
Additional Information
Fireworks, Monday night and Sunday night; home and garden exhibits; pony rides; 4-H & animal displays; food vendors; craft demonstrations; agricultural displays; free entertainment & attractions daily.
For more info please visit http://middlesexcountyfair.com/
We hope to see you there!
When a massive blackout does hit – and it will – in literally one second, you can lose access to your money, food, gasoline, communication, medicine, medical attention, heat, air conditioning, and…security.
Just about three weeks ago, I did a piece headlined: “Will You Survive the Coming Blackout?”
On the heels of this weekend’s mini-blackout in New York City, this is not about “See, I told you so!” but is about reminding people that a large and sustained blackout could and would cripple much of society as we know it – and it could and would have a devastating impact upon our very lives, and survival.
Such a blackout is coming. It is only a matter of time.
Again, leaving aside the growing threats of cyber and terrorist attacks upon our power grid, the fact of the matter is that much of our grid is antiquated junk desperately in need of billions of dollars in repair. Antiquated infrastructure which unfortunately, is connected to other outdated infrastructure.
Sometimes, the slighted bump to our ancient electrical power infrastructure triggers a chain reaction power loss which spreads in seconds and leaves millions of people literally in the dark and much worse.
In 2003, a tree branch fell on a power line in Ohio and, instantly, over 50 million people in the United States and Canada were hit with cascading blackouts.
A tree branch.
These weather-related events happen every single day in the United States and collectively cause multiple blackouts to our very old, very weak, and very vulnerable infrastructure.
The mini-blackout in New York City affected about 73,000 people. Because it hit parts of midtown Manhattan, some of the city’s top tourist attractions and hot-spots went dark. Including Madison Square Garden in the middle of a Jennifer Lopez concert.
Because of all of that, it became live national and international news for a few hours.
Then, power was restored and most people have already forgotten about it. No big deal.
Except…it is actually a massive deal.
While I have no connection — financial or otherwise — to any industry associated with this issue, my background in government and pure common sense tells me that the power outage in New York City is a red warning flag of what is to come on a larger scale and must be seen that way. It is inevitable and it is only a matter of time.
You have to make a plan to protect yourself and your family. It is irresponsible not to do so. Because when a massive blackout does hit, you will be entirely on your own. No one will be riding to your rescue.
Leaving aside a bird landing on a frayed wire, or a large branch falling on a decrepit transformer, cyber-terrorists are targeting our infrastructure multiple times per day. Often, hundreds of times per day.
And whether they are from China, Russia, North Korea, rogue terrorists or even criminal extortionist groups, they are getting exponentially better with each passing day.
This is not a game, and it’s not a plot out of a Hollywood movie. The U.S. government is shocked at the progress these bad “Cyber-Actors” are making and know we are not remotely prepared to defend ourselves at the moment.
When a massive blackout does hit – and it will – in literally one second, you can lose access to your money, food, gasoline, communication, medicine, medical attention, heat, air conditioning, and…security.
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You must have a survival kit prepared. One that includes water, non-perishable food, medicine, first-aid-kits, batteries, radios, flashlights, candles, a hand-crank charger, cash, and smaller versions of all for your vehicle and office.
The mini-blackout in New York City was not a minor inconvenience. It was a major warning.
The only question now is: Who will see it that way?
Make a plan, because you will be on your own
There are many seemingly never-ending debates: Republicans vs. Democrats; impeach vs. don’t impeach; capital punishment vs. life in prison; wall vs. no wall; legalizing marijuana vs. not; self-driving cars vs. human drivers; Red Sox vs. Yankees; takeout vs. home-cooked; or “Gone With the Wind” vs. any other movie.
All of these issues are stunningly important, right up to the second where cataclysm falls and creates a nightmare scenario that so many fear.
That cataclysm is a complete loss of electricity and every mode of convenience and survival we take for granted.
IS NORTH KOREA’S EMP THREAT REAL OR ‘SOMETHING OUT OF A JAMES BOND MOVIE’?
The largest red flag on this issue in years just waved in South America. Last weekend, tens of millions of people in Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay found themselves in a complete blackout. In one moment, they had electricity. The next moment, they had none, and they were catapulted back to the 1800s.
The national power grid of the United States is truly a mess held together with, as the joke goes, by not much more than “baling wire and chewing gum.”
Only much worse.
People in the 1800s were not dependent upon electricity for their jobs, money, communication, Internet, transportation, education, security, medical services, prescriptions, water, and very lives.
The national power grid of the United States is truly a mess held together with, as the joke goes, by not much more than “baling wire and chewing gum.”
The average age of large power transformers in the United States is 40 years. Seventy percent of all large power transformers are at least 25 years old. It’s little wonder that, according to data from the Department of Energy, the United States suffers more blackouts than any other nation in the developed world.
The overall system is so weak, so taxed, and so vulnerable that in 2003, over 50 million people in the United States and Canada were hit with cascading blackouts simply because a tree branch fell on a power line in Ohio.
Because the infrastructure is so antiquated, weather triggers multiple blackouts per year in the U.S. Blackouts which collectively cost the nation upwards of $30 billion in spoiled inventory, lost wages, and repair of the grid.
Unfortunately, weather is becoming the least feared trigger of a blackout. In the age of terrorism and increasing cyber-threats, our power-grid getting taken down by a hack is no longer seen as a question of “If it will happen,” but rather, “When it will happen?”
The U.S. government is so rightfully fearful of this, that last November, it ordered DARPA (the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency) to war-game a complete cyber take-down of the U.S. power grid.
An exercise they are now wisely running on a regular basis.
According to the Department of Homeland Security, just last year, hackers – strongly suspected to be Russian – gained access to a number of utility control rooms in the United States and got to the point where “they could have thrown switches.”
In the blink of an eye, you will lose access to money, food, gasoline, communication, medicine, medical attention, heat, air conditioning, and security.
The DHS report further stressed: “Russian government cyber actors targeted government entities and multiple U.S. critical infrastructure sectors, including the energy, nuclear, commercial facilities, water, aviation, and critical manufacturing sectors.”
Aside from the Russians, the Chinese, North Koreans, other terrorist states, and even cyber-extortionists, are targeting our power grid on a daily basis.
That clock is ticking.
Unfortunately, much like any large terrorist attack, when an extended regional or national blackout hits, you and your family will be on your own. No one is going to ride to the rescue.
How will you survive?
In the blink of an eye, you will lose access to money, food, gasoline, communication, medicine, medical attention, heat, air conditioning, and security.
Gone.
Even though most don’t do it, residents of California and Florida are reminded every year to assemble their “two-week” survival kit. In California, it’s because of earthquakes. In Florida, it’s because of hurricanes.
Survival kits which include water, non-perishable food, medicine, first-aid kits, batteries, a radio, flashlights, candles, cash, a hand-crank charger, with smaller versions of all for your vehicle and office.
The federal and state governments should be issuing that same reminder to every citizen in the nation about the coming blackout. It truly is not a question of “if,” but of “when.”
CLICK HERE TO GET THE FOX NEWS APP
A night on the town for a movie, dinner, a sporting event or a political debate is great fun until none of it matters and your survival is literally at stake.
Make a plan, because you will be on your own.
CLICK HERE TO READ MORE BY DOUG MACKINNON
Manalapan Township Day
Corbin Electrical Services, Inc. will be attending Manalapan Township Day this Saturday, 6/8/2019 from 3PM to 10PM at the Manalapan Recreation Center.
The Manalapan Arts Council (MAC) will present MANALAPAN DAY on Saturday, June 08, 2019 from 3PM to 10PM at the Manalapan Recreation Center.
This is the BIGGEST and BEST event of the year. Our annual kick off to the summer celebration will bring together thousands of residents from Manalapan and its surrounding towns for the event of the season attracting attendees of every age! This year we are excited to present the band “Under the Streetlamp” (which is made up of former Jersey Boy Cast Members) in Concert at 8pm.
The evening will commence with a spectacular fireworks display!
Rt. 9 S Closed In Manalapan; Squirrel Brings Down Power Lines
Breaking: Rt. 9 south by Castle Couture is temporarily closed, Manalapan police said, after a squirrel bit through the electric lines.
Breaking: Rt. 9 south by Castle Couture is temporarily closed after a squirrel bit through power lines.
MANALAPAN, NJ — Update: 11:40 a.m. Monday, April 29: Rt. 9 south in that area of Manalapan is now open, and power will be restored shortly. A squirrel brought down power lines on Rt. 9 south near Castle Couture in Manalapan Monday morning, police report.
Rt. 9 south by the Castle Couture is temporarily shut down, Manalapan police said, due to the electric lines being down. It appears the squirrel took a bite out of the wire, Manalapan police said.
As of 10 a.m., police say their best estimate is the road will be open within two hours and the power outages associated with the downed wire should be remedied within that time frame, as well.
Manalapan police said they found the burned carcass of the squirrel.
Power restored to thousands in Ocean County
Power was restored Sunday to thousands of Ocean County customers who lost electricity service after an equipment failure in Jersey Central Power & Light’s network.
Nearly 4,400 customers are without power in southern Ocean County.
The utility said full restoration would be achieved by 3:30 p.m. (In the Outer Banks, a power outage forced the evacuation of 10,000 tourists. See the photos of that below.
Most of the customers without power were in Lacey. Some 3,600, about 27 percent of JCP&L’s ratepayers in the township, had no electricity.
Another 700 are in the dark in neighboring Berkeley.
Power Pro Premier Dealer at the Generac National Dealer Convention
Corbin Electrical Services, Inc. honored as a Power Pro Premier Dealer at the Generac National Dealer Convention held in Las Vegas Nevada on January 8, 2019. This the 6th year in a row taking top honors. The Power Pro Premier Dealer is Generac’s highest level for dealer distinction. We thank all of our customers that have contributed to our success in making us a NJ leading Generac dealer.
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